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Tropical Update Blog from First Alert Weather Team: T.D. #2 OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BRIEF WINDOW TO BECOME T.S. BARRY WEDNESDAY JUNE 19
Tropical depression #2 moved over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night. Although wind shear is a hinderance, it's not out of the question that the depression becomes tropical storm Barry before it's final landfall on the Mexican coast Wednesday night. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat. Elsewhere in the tropics, it's quiet.
THE SEASON AHEAD This season is expected to be just as busy as the last three. 2010, 2011, & 2012 each had 19 named storms and the forecast for this season from Drs Phil Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University calls for 18 storms. All the other seasonal forecasting groups, including NOAA, call for a very active season as well. What NONE of these forecasts can tell us is where a storm will form or where it will go. Anyone who says they know what area of a coastline is more favorable before the season starts is guessing. They are wrong more than they are right. As I always say, whether we have 5 or 25 named storms, it only takes a hit by one to make it a bad season. It's so important to be prepared every year. With that said, here are three factors that may influence the upcoming season:
1) Water temperatures in the area between Africa and the Caribbean sea, known as the Main Development Region (MDR), are already above normal and are expected to stay that way through the season. Warmer water provides more fuel for storms and hurricanes.
2) No El Nino is expected this year. When an El Nino is present, wind shear has a tendency to increase and shred storm systems apart or prevent development all together.
3) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This period lasts roughly 20-25 years.
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Recent Stories
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Yesterday at 10:50 AM
Interior Alaska is seeing record breaking heat.
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Monday, June 17, 2013
High pressure will anchor itself right over the Upper Great Lakes much of this week leading to sun filled days with low humidity and high temperatures in the 70's.
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Monday, June 17, 2013
Monday will be filled with little sun, lots of clouds, and scattered showers and storms.
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Sunday, June 16, 2013
As our next system approaches, expect the showers and thunderstorms from Saturday night to linger into Father's Day.
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Friday, June 14, 2013
The payments will help local governments offset losses in property taxes due to nontaxable federal lands within their boundaries.
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Friday, June 14, 2013
An absolutely gorgeous Friday is in store for Northern Michigan.
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Thursday, June 13, 2013
Low pressure exiting to the east, and high pressure moving in, will bring a brief dry out for Northern Michigan.
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Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Drivers should be aware of foggy conditions across Northern Michigan Wednesday morning. A low pressure system crossing through the Ohio Valley will also touch off storms to the south.
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Wednesday, June 12, 2013
A brewing threat from Iowa to Mid-Atlantic expected to bring massive thunderstorms, high winds, hail, and a rare event known as a derecho.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2013
I am going to pencil in a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening.
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