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Satellite the size of a school bus falling from the sky
Posted: 09.21.2011 at 9:53 AM
Updated: 09.22.2011 at 5:10 AM
Roxanne Werly

Roxanne Werly is the Interactive and Broadcast Managing Editor for TV 7&4 and 29&8

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The impact area could be anywhere from Canada to South America this week.

A satellite the size of a school bus is predicted to hit the earth this week.  / NASA
Photo

UPDATE:  According to NASA, as of Wednesday evening, the orbit of UARS was 120 mi by 130 mi (190 km by 205 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 to 48 hours.

defunct satellite is expected to fall to the earth sometime this week, the time-frame was moved up due to the sun being more active, which accelerated the process.

NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite weighs six-tons and is the size of a school bus. It's expected to fall to earth sometime between Sept. 22 and 24.  The location of impact is also a large area, with experts saying it could land anywhere from Canada to South America.

As of Wednesday the time frame is Sept. 23, according to NASA.

The original time frame of the crash was late September to early October.  According to MSNBC that wide window of possibilities was due to the uncertainties over atmospheric conditions.  But now NASA says the sun's activity is pushing up that prediction.

Higher solar activity heats and expands the upper atmosphere, creating more drag for satellites in decaying orbits. The increased drag pulls down those satellites more quickly - and that's what's behind the earlier prediction.

As of Sept. 21, the orbit of UARS on NASA's status page was 120 mi by 130 mi (195 km by 210 km). Re-entry is expected Sept. 23, United States time, according to NASA. The time reference does not mean that the satellite is expected to re-enter over the United States. It is simply a time reference. Although it is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry, predictions of the time period are becoming more refined.

Astronomy Professor at Northwestern Michigan College, Jerry Dobek, has worked with NASA in the past.  Dobek says he is also monitoring the satellite.

"It's exciting that something like this is coming down,  it's also somewhat a little nerve-racking and unnerving the fact that we don't know exactly where its going to land, its path is coming back into touch down to earth is somewhere between 57 degrees north latitude, 57 degrees south latitude, well the good news of that is about 70 percent of that is covered with water.  The bad news of that is that's the highly populated region of earth," explained Dobek.

Other parts of the prediction remain in force: The satellite, which monitored atmospheric changes between 1991 and 2005 but was then put in a disposal orbit, could fall anywhere in latitude between northern Canada and southern South America. The biggest piece to survive the fall is expected to weigh about 300 pounds, or roughly the weight of a refrigerator.

Officials say the chance that any piece of the satellite will hit anybody at all is 1-in-3,200, 

Where's UARS now? This satellite-tracking page shows you its location in real time.  NASA is also updating its page daily as the satellite gets closer. You can also read the most common questions about orbit debris HERE.

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